Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in England.
Identifieur interne : 000A32 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A31; suivant : 000A33Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in England.
Auteurs : Yang Liu [Royaume-Uni] ; Julian W. Tang [Royaume-Uni] ; Tommy T Y. Lam [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a tremendous health burden and impact on the world economy. The UK Government implemented the biggest lockdown of society during peacetime in British history at the end of March 2020, aiming to contain the rapid spread of the virus. The UK lockdown was maintained for 7 weeks, but the effectiveness of the control measures in suppressing disease transmission remains incompletely understood.
METHODS
A Bayesian SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) epidemiological model was used to rebuild the local transmission dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in nine regions of England.
RESULTS
The basic reproduction number (R
CONCLUSION
This study enhances understanding of the current outbreak and the effectiveness of control measures in the UK.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.055
PubMed: 33359440
PubMed Central: PMC7757353
Affiliations:
- Royaume-Uni, République populaire de Chine
- Angleterre, Angleterre de l'Est
- Cambridge
- Université de Cambridge
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Electronic address: yang.liu@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Julian W" sort="Tang, Julian W" uniqKey="Tang J" first="Julian W" last="Tang">Julian W. Tang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Leicester</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lam, Tommy T Y" sort="Lam, Tommy T Y" uniqKey="Lam T" first="Tommy T Y" last="Lam">Tommy T Y. 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Tang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Respiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Leicester</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lam, Tommy T Y" sort="Lam, Tommy T Y" uniqKey="Lam T" first="Tommy T Y" last="Lam">Tommy T Y. Lam</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong SAR</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a tremendous health burden and impact on the world economy. The UK Government implemented the biggest lockdown of society during peacetime in British history at the end of March 2020, aiming to contain the rapid spread of the virus. The UK lockdown was maintained for 7 weeks, but the effectiveness of the control measures in suppressing disease transmission remains incompletely understood.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>A Bayesian SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) epidemiological model was used to rebuild the local transmission dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in nine regions of England.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>The basic reproduction number (R</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>This study enhances understanding of the current outbreak and the effectiveness of control measures in the UK.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">33359440</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2021</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>30</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>104</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Dec</Month><Day>23</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int J Infect Dis</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in England.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>132-138</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(20)32579-0</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.12.055</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a tremendous health burden and impact on the world economy. The UK Government implemented the biggest lockdown of society during peacetime in British history at the end of March 2020, aiming to contain the rapid spread of the virus. The UK lockdown was maintained for 7 weeks, but the effectiveness of the control measures in suppressing disease transmission remains incompletely understood.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">A Bayesian SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-removed) epidemiological model was used to rebuild the local transmission dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in nine regions of England.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) in England was found to be relatively high compared with China. The estimate of the temporally varying effective reproduction number (R<sub>t</sub>) suggests that the control measures, especially the forced lockdown, were effective to reduce transmissibility and curb the COVID-19 epidemic. Although the overall incidence rate in the UK has declined, forecasting highlights the possibility of a second epidemic wave in several regions.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">This study enhances understanding of the current outbreak and the effectiveness of control measures in the UK.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liu</LastName><ForeName>Yang</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. 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Tang</name></country><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lam, Tommy T Y" sort="Lam, Tommy T Y" uniqKey="Lam T" first="Tommy T Y" last="Lam">Tommy T Y. Lam</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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